Morning, Firstly, agree with everything Fritler has said,...

Morning,
Firstly, agree with everything Fritler has said, Portsmouth I have no doubt you're very knowledgeable about the stock but when it comes to the export margin, please reconsider your position. Myself and Fritler (it seems) have spent our careers trading grain so are very aware of the current situation. The main point is that GNC export something like 4-5Mt themselves (I dont have the data in front of me so this is from memory), and the previous results have included those exports making say A$40-50/t in the past few years - this is now close to zero. Thats circa $200M. This has been a 2-3yr stretch that may never be seen again when it comes to export margin. Will it come back, I dont think it will and neither do a lot of the major traders who have been slamming the domestic market recently given the export demand has been so bad/no margin. Exports will keep chugging along at a decent clip, but its more about keeping assets turning vs making money. I got long this stock a few years back and was on GNC hotcopper wires explaining why, the inverse of the same reasons are why I am back on the short side. I don't have anything against GNC long term, I just think the export margin + smaller crop etc will see a fall in the share price. Probabilities of GNC rallying here vs taking a step back look favourable from the short side.

Stayer, to your question re oilseed operations, I have lost touch with them a lil over the past couple of years but think the expansion by GNC makes sense but same dynamics as wheat/barley whereby the export margin will be under pressure as the Ukr/Rus war created a very advantageous environment for any exports out of Aus