I sold 80 per cent of my GNC the other day to take profits....

I sold 80 per cent of my GNC the other day to take profits.

Today I was in northeast Victoria, probably at best 40-60 kilometres from the start of graingrowing areas to the west, and there were full dams everywhere, limited flooding beside the Sydney-Melbourne rail line and what looked to be good pasture growth.

Naturally, there's been less rain as one moves west but soil moisture may still be very good to excellent. The BOM forecasts showers on a couple of days for much of Victoria's Wimmera by the end of the week, but no rain is forecast in graingrowing areas of NSW, or Victoria's Mallee.

Agricultureguru, the Russia/Ukraine situation remains uncertain. What isn't being reported is whether any Russian port infrastructure has been damaged. Previously, Ukrainian ports were claimed to have suffered damage.

This comprehensive report gives a 'mixed picture' but overall estimates say:

"...The wash-up for global wheat production is a net decrease of 10Mt amongst the world’s major exporters..."

(to my mind, that's not a huge decrease. It's also based on numerous assumptions that may - or may not - come to fruition. As always, best to DYOR).

https://www.graincentral.com/markets/new-crop-wheat-story-turns-bullish/

The story also makes this comment, which is relevant to the discussion we've had above:

"...the dramatic reduction in export margins over the past couple of months..."