Ann: GrainCorp upgrades FY22 earnings guidance, page-2

Boom times.

Should mean a rising dividend.

The demand for our grains is excellent.

While I would prefer not to merely profit from others' misery with what's occurring in Ukraine beyond most Australians' comprehension as few have ever been in a theatre of war, it's hard to see the Russia/Ukraine conflict resolved tomorrow.

Medium term, Russia may gain from control of more crops - the war is about seizing control of more natural resources - but in the short term there may be lots of damage to infrastructure (not just ports, which by all accounts haven't been badly hit in the main, but roads and railways) plus we don't know whether farmers' equipment has been hit. There have been reports of Ukrainian graingrowers having fuel stolen by Russian soldiers.

The upgrade buttresses 'HC' contributor Portsmouth's constant reminders that GNC as a handler benefits even if some of the winter 2021 crop was downgraded to feed wheat.

There's relatively gentle rain in the NSW Riverina and a lot further north approaching northwest NSW's Walgett this morning so that's a further positive.

The demand for oils is a bonus. This is an underappreciated side of GNC's operations, and one that has expanded.

As a Victorian, there are some flies in the ointment.

While I don't know how subsoil moisture is, the lack of rain in Victoria's west (Wimmera and Mallee) as planting season commences may be a concern. It seems better in Victoria's northeast with the Yarrawonga area receiving rain as I write and more forecast next week. Is it possible part of Victoria will revert to being in drought?

The Australian Rail Track Corporation's four to six month closure of the hilly, steeply graded Moss Vale to Unanderra rail line that is the most direct link for NSW Riverina grain to reach the GNC shiploader at Port Kembla is a concern. I covered that in another thread.

Can GNC get sufficient grain from upcountry to port?

What will be the carryover as planting commences, and the likely situation in October 2022 when the crops are about to gradually be harvested (assuming no disastrous drought or last minute flooding?)