My guess is the former was priced in, but yes, recent rainfall in western and northwestern Victorian plus some of the NSW Riverina can't have escaped traders' minds if they keep themselves well informed.
As you imply, there's continuing excellent demand provided GNC can get the grain to port (hard in Port Kembla's case until 25 April as only then will the Wollongong line fully reopen allegedly, and the mountains line across from Moss Vale to Unanderra remains closed) and find bulk ships to convey the product to markets.
Egypt for instance IIRC was once a huge customer for Australian wheat but may then have bought more from Russia/Ukraine, but is now apparently looking further afield. No shortage of demand from Asian nations like Philippines also helps.
I'd love some updates from graingrowers and others in rural east coast Australia as to how the planting season is going: the level of commitment, whether high input prices are causing switches in farming, how good or otherwise subsoil moisture is and so on. They can provide insights that urbanites fail on.
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