We have great conditions factored in at the moment, higher La Nina odds when we already have a lot of moisture is a big risk. 3 years in a row for Eastern Australia. Would be nice if we could arrange a La Nina for every second or third year for farmers. Insurers might howl. I'm no expert so basing my opinion on the link below.
The development of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole and the possibility of a third consecutive La Niña event are expected to result in above average rainfall across eastern Australia. Above average rainfall is likely to support winter crop production, however, conditions that are significantly wetter than average may delay the 2022–23 winter crop harvest and downgrade grain quality in some regions. Weather damage at harvest would make affected wheat not fit for milling, leading to a quality profile similar to last year on the east coast. This may diminish Australia’s opportunity to capitalise on low world supply of high-quality milling wheat. However, the overall proportion of milling grade wheat could be higher than last year given the outlook for below average rainfall during grain fill and harvest in Western Australia. Globally, a third consecutive La Niña event may result in below average rainfall for the southern United States, southern Brazil and much of Argentina. This could have implications for global grain production over the coming year."
GNC Price at posting:
$8.59 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Held
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