This upfront- in case anyone thinks I might be pumping or cheering outside my defined boundaries>
As far as I'm aware, there has been absolutely 0 mention or even insinuation from Neil, or the Board about a potential divvy distributed to shareholders post (we speculate) a Grandis sale.
I have called for one, speculatively- because it makes some sense- but it is JUST hypothetic.
However, imagine this if you will:Analysis (that we know is to be released in January) shows we have say 3tcf gas in place + some condensate at Grandis
OF COURSE this needs to be flowed optimally to determine potential commerciality- but lets x our fingers and hope that's the case and Halliburton and the EXR team can optimally program the conventional free flowing gas with the locked sandstones and fractured thermal coals.
Very roughly- rule of thumb is $1billion AUD per tcf ( it's probably conservative- if anyone can add some actuals here that would be great, but in lieu, lets stick with that)
So- $3billion GIP value+ say $300 mill for arguments sake for the condensate- OIP (Oil in place)
Grandis is "worth" $3.3 billion AUD for the gas and condensate in the ground,
Santos/Shell/Whoever would (again perhaps a bit conservative, but let's stick with it) offer us say 10% of that GIP/OIP value.
After all- they carry the risk and expense going forward.
So- we accept Santos's final offer of $330 million AUD for Grandis, after Shell have had a wee go at it.
Currently we are 1.056 billion SOI or thereabouts + the new 76 million form the last $6,5 mill CR at 8,5c
So- say 1,132,000,000 shares on issue (note potential 75million or so 12c exercisable oppies to add, + some 20mill or so performance shares etc etc)
but lets' for now stick with 1.132billy shares on issue.
IF we then get $330million cash in the bank, would it be unreasonable to throw us long suffering shareholders a wee bone?
MAYBE this:$132 million AUD chucked at us feeble retail shareholder plebs- i.e. 10c per share divvy.
I've previously posted some thoughts about what must be running through Neils head-
"a 10c divvy- that's near enough $3.8 million to me + 400k for my joint super account"....hard NOT to think seriously about that.
gives Neil- presumably- some financial freedom and then allows him to get well and truly after Mongolia CBM, Gobi H20 and potentially more assets
It leaves $200,000,000 in the EXR treasury coffers to go hard at repeating the process with Mongolia CBM, etc etc.
As you say- that's an appealing stock to hold.
BUT- this is all just musings.We need Grandis to have a nice prospective resource (we'll soon be more informed) and then we need the gas and condensate to flow- optimally, to then , we hope, be commercially viable.
Then- if so, strap yourselves in
(20min delay)
