CTP central petroleum limited

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5.5¢

Thanks OGP You understand this company and industry much better...

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justinmetals

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01/09/18

17:15

Post #: 35350091
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Originally posted by OilGasPlanning ↑

Not investment advise and readers should do their own independent research very carefully.

Unfortunately one of my recent posts is still pretty relevant...

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/an....4313088/page-9?post_id=34463556#.W4obNssUn1I

IMO CTP will struggle to turn a modest profit in 2019 because of cash and working capital constraints and the legacy of limitations imposed by Mereenie, Palm valley and Dingo surface facilities and the 44 TJ/day constraint on the Mereenie Spur.

Bear in mind that we appeared to need the share capital earmarked to drill the second Mereenie horizontal well to pay for surface facilities and that we increased our MAC "Overdraft" by 5M just in case.

Ooramina is being drilled so we can retain the tenement and will cost a lot of money for surface facilities and even a small pipeline (Refer to historical Dingo costs.

The reason I mention this is that IMO it is very important for CTP shareholders to have a realistic view of the value of the company in case there is another offer.

The chairman at the last AGM as I understood it maintained the view that shareholders should have taken the MAC SOA.

In any case the 2019 profitability model really needs to be clearly communicated by CTP.

I have hesitated to post lately because I am of the form opinion that it should not be up to shareholders operating with a pretty sketchy set of presentations to make be drawn into acting as proxies for CTP .

GLTA

Regards OGP

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Thanks OGP
You understand this company and industry much better than me and I have lots of time for your input.

re the SOA totally agree and MAC obviously thought they could easily double their money at 20c with plenty of Southern A upside with Santos. At least RC and board negotiated CVN for a slice of that upside too. Anyway the whole thing is looking better now than at time of SOA.

Do you have any idea what would be involved in upgrading the mereenie spur? Wouldn’t it be in APA groups interest to make this investment as RC alluded? Any idea of lead time? Also, you highlighted APAs Amadeus pipe is capacity constrained too.

As for PV drilling underway, What are your thoughts on this?

It must be 500m down so in now so in another 10-15 days I’m guessing they will be at 1500m and starting to go horizontal in the gas zone.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Mac try again with a 30-40c offer soon but just a wild guess

Last edited by justinmetals: 01/09/18

CTP Price at posting: 12.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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