I have done a few tables for Carnaby Resources comparison purposes. A very rough guide appears to be that deposits with greater than $150/t of contained metal get mined using todays prices (yes I know each deposit has different mining and processing costs etc and should be treated on merit not by a rule of thumb).There are numerous gold mines mining below 1.5g/t (or $150/t on todays record prices) but large open pits with simple metallurgy are required at lower grades.
Carnaby overall looks ok but does have a few issues with my rule of thumb. The total resource comes in at $184.2/t but the Nil Desperandum open pit is a struggle at $106/t as is Duchess/Ivanhoe at $98.4/t. Perhaps Nil Desperandum open pit can be mined as a means to get to the pay day underground. The Breccia zone at $466/t looks good and could even be a shaft access if copper prices continue to drift. Lady Fanny, Bourke and Wills and Mount Hope look good as open pits also the underground at Mount Hope. Overall a good quality resource package with good contained metal per tonne and very good metallurgical test results with high extraction rates for copper and gold. I am happy with the maiden resource size and quality and knowing further resource growth will come fairly quickly. I expect a revised MRE as part of the PFS in 2024.
Also some other deposits in the Mt Isa/Cloncurry area to compare with. Interestingly the mining cut-off at todays metal prices seems to be contained metal of about $150/t ore. The Swan and Mount Dore/Merlin deposits are below this and have not been mined (may be some old workings). Further details on the third table give a similar impression. Winu is not yet progressing with mining despite the size. The very high value smaller Liontown deposits in QLD are owned by Sunshine Metals are likely to be mined given the value and potential for resource growth with further drilling which is underway. Havieron is under development and Nifty is seeking finance. Minyari is looking for more resources before PFS stage. DeGrussa and Monty made substantial profits for Sandfire which should not surprise when the value per tonne and resource size is considered.
Both Carnaby and Hammer have WA lithium and gold projects both going nowhere at present but things can change quickly. Hammer's Kalman deposit meets my threshold but it has different metallurgy and metal mix. It has $94.32/t of copper and gold and $81.3/t of Molybdenum and Rhenium. The market does not seems to believe in the Mo and Re value at Kalman. Recently Mo prices have varied from $30-100,000/t and currently sits at $75,000. If the price was $30,000/t for Mo the contained metal value per tonne of ore at Kalman drops to $130.62/t and this does not look attractive. The processing cost of extracting 4 metals, Cu, Au, Mo and Re, will very likely exceed that of just extracting Cu and Au. Kalman open pit looks even worse at $113.40/t with all 4 metals and is probably why Kalman remains unmined. The high grade zone at Kalman looks more promising with 10.5 million tonne with a Cu-Au contained metal value of $150.48 and this jumps to $329.88/t if Mo and Re are included. These figures use the current very high price of gold at $3167/oz. My conclusion is that when the market believes that Hammer can extract the Mo at a reasonable price and lock in long term sale contracts for Mo at prices in excess of $50,000/t then Hammer may get a re-rate. It trades at quite a discount to Carnaby.
DYOR. Not investment or mining economics advice.
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