Ann: Grieve EOR Project Progess Report , page-7

It’s good that they finally gave us an update.

It looks like they will have something more substantial for the AGM. The remaining 4 tests should be done by then so we’ll have a better understanding of how much oil we can recover.

I seem to remember a few years ago we were told that the OOIP at Grieve was about 85MBO and that production to date had achieved a 35% recovery rate. I’d like to think that estimate was more accurate based on actual field production (the estimate by Surtek is the minimum and would be very conservative). Combining the 85MBO with the ultimate recovery rate (hopefully the combination of chemicals in the last 4 tests may get incremental recovery to around 25% or more) we could be looking at around 20MBO. That figure would compare very favourably with the CO2 flood but without the big capex investment (pipelines, CO2 contract, etc).

I’ve done a simple table to show how the different OOIP and recovery rates will impact on final recovery.


Recovery/OOIP 72 78 85 90 100
17.5% 12.6 13.7 14.9 15.8 17.5
20.0% 14.4 15.6 17.0 18.0 20.0
22.5% 16.2 17.6 19.1 20.3 22.5
25.0% 18.0 19.5 21.3 22.5 25.0

It will be interesting to see which path they choose to develop - JV or debt? If they JV I just hope they do it on reasonable terms without giving too much away. JV would be ok if the partner pays all development costs and gives us enough cash to do other things such as drilling at SDS, Ash Creek, Kakadu, etc.

Either debt or JV it will be good to see this finally get the go ahead.