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Tuesday, 26 March 2024

GMD - GENESIS MINERALS LIMITED

Macquarie rates GMD as Outperform (1) - Over FY25-29, Genesis Minerals forecasts total production of 1.3moz, in line with Macquarie's estimate. The production plan from FY30-34 is a beat against the broker's forecasts by circa 75,000oz per annum, due to stronger-than-expected production at Laverton.

Overall, management's five-year plan was softer than the analyst's prior expectations, driven by materially higher capex.

Macquarie reduces near-term EPS forecasts, and higher-than-expected growth capital is balanced by longer-term upgrades.

The $2.00 target and Outperform rating for Genesis Minerals are retained.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.80 Difference: $0.2 If GMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges). Current consensus price target is $1.91, suggesting upside of 6.3%(ex-dividends)The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.80 cents . At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.50. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.30 cents . At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.57. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.2, implying annual growth of 30.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.5All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources