NTA is not going to remain steady. On an off I have invested in...

NTA is not going to remain steady. On an off I have invested in development related shares for nearly 50 years.

GFC pricing had some developers and property trusts trade at 20c in the dollar of NTA. Many of these were based on bs valuations others were reasonable. All had NTA decline sharply. Those with poor quality Vals and deeply out of the money interest rate swaps took double losses when they sold. Others did fire sale recapitalisation. A very few survived by selling part of their portfolios into a stable market. Some Pubs and child care centres being examples of more liquid property parcels.

The only thing we know about this down turn is it has stared recently and is picking up steam. Englobo development sites are being hit. Land content is being hit. Remember the build content never gets hit much.

All these property spruikers never talk about when the market s****s itself. During the GFC there were many incidents of property being bought below the build cost, the land came for free. Maybe less of this in Sydney.

If you look at Devine they have been a slow moving train wreck for a decade. Like vlw, or GPW as it was then they could be had for under 50% of NTA during the GFC. Both wrote down their stock and made englobo sales and had improvements to share price. GPW proved to be a steady performer. If you add back Devines recent accounting policy change
You have Devine now trading at near 1/3 if the adjusted NTA. I wouldn’t touch Devine with a barge pole. They spent ten year restructuring and never or rarely nade a profit.

VLW have good management but I expect the NTA and share price will both fall. What is good buying today might be compelling buying tomorrow. I hope to buy a few more at s cheaper price for the long term.