If Norman had simply not entered arbitration against Woodside -...

If Norman had simply not entered arbitration against Woodside - an action that was utterly pointless as FAR had no $$ to even attempt to buy Conoco's stake even if they had won - then they would have had project financing sewn up long before the COVID crash and hence would not have become forced sellers. that mistake alone - borne entirely from Norman's poor management - is grounds for firing.

as regards the company today - am surprised by the lack of discussion on Guinea Bissau exit. this is basically a wind-down happening in real time. GB exit without any extra cost is a substantial positive, in my view.

the chances of earning $1 minimum in <12mos here - given zero actual operations to wind down, and just one exploration asset left to exit in some form - seem very strong to me, even absent favorite capital allocation (which remains a priority for me). frankly i think this has a strong likelihood to earn a 50% gross return, minimum, and a 60-70% IRR (through cap allocation or <12mo holding period), with minimal risk of capital impairment, and view this as the strongest trade in my book.

in an uncertain market i am surprised this is still a mid-60s stock. my position is up to 1.6% of the company.