GMC 0.00% 0.6¢ gulf manganese corporation limited

Morning all. Shout out to you RedTempura - Hope you're well. To...

  1. 59 Posts.
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    Morning all.

    Shout out to you RedTempura - Hope you're well.
    To the couple of veterans of this thread - shout outs to you. Good to be back.

    I noticed this stock has been fairly turbulent with movements up and down lately.
    I accept that much of it may be Trump, market volatility, day traders etc - but also acknowledge that a lot
    of it may be due to my long absence from HC.

    Would just like to share with you a little something I stumbled across whilst doing my research :

    Triple C has upgraded the research on Gulf Manganese as a result of the announcement today (15th November 2016) by the company in relation to the Cornerstone investment by Pak Marthen.
    In the last two months, Gulf has achived 2 key milestones which signifigantly de-risk the project.

    1) 03/10/22016: Approval by The Provincial Government for the development of the Kupang Smelting Hub
    2) 15/11/2016: Cornerstone commitment from Pak Marthen of up to US$20m for 20% of PT Gulf Mangan in two stages

    Triple C has applied a very conservative base case valuation for GMC without applying any additional upside. The price target on the valuation is based on the Cornerstone’s investment and the Smelting Projects’ current Valuation.

    Key Assumptions:

    - Gulf Manganese Corporation initially owned 100% of their Indonesian Subsidiary PT Gulf Mangan.
    - Pak Marthen is investing US$10m for 10% of PT Gulf Mangan with a 12 month option to invest further US$10m for additional 10%, which implies PT Gulf Mangan is valued at US $100m.
    - Upon full cornerstone commitment being received, Gulf Manganese Corporation (GMC) would own 80% of PT Gulf Mangan,  which implies GMC has US$80m of the project.
    - Assume $1 AUD = $0.75 USD (Based on todays exchange rate).
    - This values Gulf Manganese Corporations’ 80% share of the PT Gulf Mangan at AUD $106.67 million.
    - At a corporate level, Gulf Manganese has 1,304,260,106 Fully Ordinary Paid Shares on issue, 505,361,419 Listed Options AND 56,275,917 Unlisted Options.
    - Fully diluted- 1,865,897,442 / AUD $106.67 million implies a share value of $0.057
    - Add back the initial USD$10,000,000.00 investment in cash  (AUD $13,333,333) @ exchange rate of $0.75
    - On a fully diluted basis, this implies a share price valuation of $0.065 a share.

    Triple C maintain a SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation with an upgrade to 6-month price target of A$0.065/share.


    Fairly significant upgrade from initial SP forecast of 4.5c suggests that this stock has a long way to go and may
    attract a much different type of investor from here on in. Expecting that when the money comes in, be it in hours, days or
    weeks that we will see a significant climb.

    For all those doubters. Google Jack Watts.

    Cheers STJ
    Last edited by ShareTradingJnr: 16/11/16
 
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