@bug1
Welcome back to HC.
I hope your self-imposed time off from HC has allowed you to refresh your opinion about VOC and your other stocks.
We all have our own reasons for buying a particular stock and only time (not other HC users) will prove whether or not our decision is correct.
It is very important for all of us to be objective and ruthless as much as possible when analysing our investments' latest results and try not to fall into the trap of confirmation bias whereby we unconsciously pay attention only on facts that confirm our prior thesis and ignore any other that negates our belief.
Whilst we are on the very interesting topic of bias, I would like to mention one more bias that can also work against us, that is, commitment bias. By participating in a public forum like HC and declaring our positions, we can fall into the trap of this particular bias.
There is no rule in investing that bans us from changing our mind and selling a stock, no matter how high our prior conviction was before.
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Reading VOC's latest half year report was very challenging. In a 51-page report, the P&L only starts from page 30, the preceding 29 pages were full of explanations, tables comparing statutory vs underlying results, vs constant FX results, and various restatements.
I tried to focus and really understand the report but in the end I found myself not clever enough to understand it. It's simply too difficult for me. I have a feeling there are not many VOC followers who can genuinely say that they really understand this report.
I suspect that even management has difficulty in really understanding the numbers that they have produced.
This is why there has been a series of downgrades in the past 1-2 years.
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From my point of view, these are the risks facing VOC in the next 12 months:
- Price achieved for NZ businesses
- Relentless competition in the consumer business
- Customer uptake for ASC
- Continued integration issues
- Potential more board upheaval
- Refinancing risks
- Possible capital raising if NZ sale doesn't proceed for whatever reason
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I wish you all the best with your VOC investment. I know that you are not just financially invested, but in some ways mentally invested as well.
For me, it's still not attractive even after the massive falls over the past few months.
