So really, what are the alternatives come early November/Late...

So really, what are the alternatives come early November/Late October?

1. Administration: Shareholders get some pennies a share, maybe, after liquidation and legal/admin costs as Note 1 would indicate, much less than the current SP.

2. Equity CR identical et to the one in June, SP falls to a theoretical 8.6 cents per share, a 48% dilution. This alternative also is the SP that forces PB’s margin loan completely into liquidation: (8 cents is 109% of his margin call on 17 million shares).

3. A Debt CR, if anyone will have it, long term debt on an already weak BS of $32m in net assets. Now the debt to equity looks bad and debt holders jump in front of shareholders in any liquidation event wherein which shareholders would most likely get $0. Immediate SP drop to reflect debt equity ratio increase. Estimate: 13 cents just based on gut. $11 million would buy 3 more quarters. Then the same problem again.

4. A white knight or MBO if PB could find a backer or a buyer, somewhere south of the current book value of 13 cents or so to be attractive. Maybe 10 cents? $12 million for the whole thing? They’d give you the choice of voting “yes” or they will go into administration, So 10 cents is an estimated sunny side? This is the alternative that would get PB (28% holder) some cash out. This is probably the most attractive option for PB.

I would be frantically looking for a buyer or a backer for an MBO if I were PB at this point.

Does anyone see any other alternatives (besides “hope”)?

To recap my end of year SP forecasts:

1. Pennies
2. 8 cents
3. 13 cents, Eventually 0
4. 10 cents

This is wildly over valued by any sane measure of past performance and current macro realities. EXL is a zombie company, living only on hand outs at this point.

And the results we saw today haven’t even been audited yet. The auditors may not sign off on a going concern statement. Not sure when that is due. But they’d be nuts to sign off without another CR.