XRO 0.86% $148.21 xero limited

Ann: H1 FY23 Investor Presentation, page-55

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  1. 1,586 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 632
    First time in many many years (I believe) the LTV exceeds the MC.
    If I could be bothered I would overlay these two charts (and correct for top chart in USD and botom one in NZD) but its pretty obvious.
    90% gross margin, and if you switch off marketing and product development, theres just another 10% of general admin, so 80% net profit (cashflow)
    This is significant and provides the investment case.
    If you switched off marketing and product development and just flowed the cash back to shareholders for 9 years (assumed that growth in subscrption fees cancels out the discount rate), your cashflow would be more than the current SP.
    That doesnt account for word of mouth marketing (new subscribers) and also the fact that the 'term' of a subscriber is supposedly 9,2 years which is a very crude calculation based on churn on 0.91% per month (100/(12*0.91)), but if you exponentially decayed it the weighted average subscriber term would be longer
    They are not going to do this, but the 'shut the doors' scenario gives this a floor in the price I beleive
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/4836/4836787-8ee29b0633b27c84ddf4239f1a7de9a5.jpg

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/4836/4836790-35c5d069a1a35c798fc929b2131af4ee.jpg


 
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$148.21
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