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$1.85 cettire limited

almost spot on…

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hankreardon

1,158 Posts.

593

10/08/23

21:47

Post #: 69278872
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Originally posted by hankreardon: ↑

My apologies. Finally got around to properly doing the figures.

My revised numbers are: Sales revenue of ~415m, NPAT of ~15m
Assuming a deceleration in revenue growth (a very big if), by 50% of the annualised rate of 135% to 68%, then a slower deceleration in FY 25 to 51% then 38%, we get 692m sales revenue FY24 and 1042m FY25 and 1437m FY26. Given the most recent half netted at just over 4%, 5% net margins with some further operating leverage gives NPAT figures of 35/52/72 for FY24-26.
A business demonstrating that execution should actually demonstrate multiple expansion, if anything, giving a valuation of 3-4B over a 3 year horizon (or $10/share).
Given that the near term growth rates seem far more likely to overshoot the 68% I've used, I think if anything this materially undervalues the business.

From where I am sitting, the current valuation still does not incorporate the likely outcomes here, given the market sensitive news. Putting it another way, assuming a growth rate of 135% for the year, NPAT of 14m (assuming decreased GM as the EBITDA of 7m is lower than H1), the backwards looking (more or less given FY23 is nearly over) PEG ratio is ~0.45.

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almost spot on…

CTT Price at posting: $3.14 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
3 Upvote

2 Great analysis

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(20min delay)
Last $1.85		Change 0.010(0.54%)		Mkt cap ! $703.3M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$1.85	$1.90	$1.83	$1.771M	956.7K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
5	3450	$1.85

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$1.85	11193	14

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
6	3550	1.845
8	24430	1.840
8	18537	1.835
8	16860	1.830
10	36690	1.825

Price($)	Vol.	No.
1.850	9537	12
1.855	10042	11
1.860	1437	3
1.865	27852	4
1.870	3500	5

Last trade - 13.48pm 04/10/2024 (20 minute delay)

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