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almost spot on…

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hankreardon

1,158 Posts.

593

10/08/23

21:47

Post #: 69278872
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Originally posted by hankreardon: ↑

My apologies. Finally got around to properly doing the figures.

My revised numbers are: Sales revenue of ~415m, NPAT of ~15m
Assuming a deceleration in revenue growth (a very big if), by 50% of the annualised rate of 135% to 68%, then a slower deceleration in FY 25 to 51% then 38%, we get 692m sales revenue FY24 and 1042m FY25 and 1437m FY26. Given the most recent half netted at just over 4%, 5% net margins with some further operating leverage gives NPAT figures of 35/52/72 for FY24-26.
A business demonstrating that execution should actually demonstrate multiple expansion, if anything, giving a valuation of 3-4B over a 3 year horizon (or $10/share).
Given that the near term growth rates seem far more likely to overshoot the 68% I've used, I think if anything this materially undervalues the business.

From where I am sitting, the current valuation still does not incorporate the likely outcomes here, given the market sensitive news. Putting it another way, assuming a growth rate of 135% for the year, NPAT of 14m (assuming decreased GM as the EBITDA of 7m is lower than H1), the backwards looking (more or less given FY23 is nearly over) PEG ratio is ~0.45.

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almost spot on…

CTT Price at posting: $3.14 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
3 Upvote

2 Great analysis

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Last $1.12		Change -0.020(1.76%)		Mkt cap ! $425.0M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$1.15	$1.22	$1.08	$18.73M	16.33M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
4	29445	$1.12

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$1.13	237579	2

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
4	29445	1.115
5	147348	1.110
4	61569	1.105
4	26334	1.100
8	41442	1.095

Price($)	Vol.	No.
1.130	237579	2
1.135	41878	2
1.145	41878	1
1.150	51878	3
1.155	41878	1

Last trade - 16.10pm 25/06/2024 (20 minute delay)

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