Ann: H1 FY24 Results and Half Year Report, page-5

Both their main assets have upsides .

Lightning has a gas price upside .US gas prices will eventually move closer to world prices but the timing of when is not predictable .
There was no indication that the operator wanted to unlock the gas in the tight zones when gas prices were high when the Ukraine war started and they certainly won't do it at low prices .
OEL might not participate in that drilling when and if it occurred because it would come imo with considerable execution risk .

SM71 , the F1 well will increase production when the F3 well is finally shut in .The problem there is all the decisions are with BYE and they are there for the long haul and want to wring every drop of oil out of the project even if it means a lower daily production for a while .
It is hard to say how much F1 flow would increase once they stopped producing from F3 but it is my guess it would be more than the current oil production of F3 .
There is also a fairly low risk attic well to be drilled into the prolific D5 sand but again it is a timing issue with that well only being on their drilling schedule once F1 is watered out and that could be years away .
There are other potential drill targets at SM71 but they are too higher risk for BYE to consider them drilling them for a long time and OEL probably would not want to take part anyway .

The royalty in Alaska could eventually be quite valuable in time but its value now is quite unknown and it would be a buyers market if they tried to sell it now .

Taking everything into account I think that OEL is worth more than 0.5 cents post capital return if they do what they say and don't give the assets away .
They will need to keep on lowering the head count and the business costs to make it work .