Ann: H1 FY24 Results Presentation, page-64

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tessathedog

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06/03/24

15:48

Post #: 72775867
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Originally posted by Oldbloke: ↑

After listening to the Half Year Results to 31 December 2023 webcast, I'm looking at SGR a little differently.

In the Q&A session, at 38:00min, a question is asked about the QWB 'debt stack' refi for Dec 2025. The CFO doesn't have a clear answer for how that will occur and refers to some moving parts, including operating revenue (bearing in mind the plan is for a staged opening, with full opening being in 2026 some time).

Asset portfolio(from 2021 presentation)...

Looking to the future, my conservative assumptions as to what assets I'll be holding (or if I bought more shares now, what I'm actually investing in):
- Treasury Brisbane will be sold. Griffith University and others who can afford it are looking at DD.
- NSW government investment brings with it sovereign risk and being blind sided with no warning - e.g., previously agreed contracts can be torn up, major announcements with material impact with little or no notice. IMO this makes NSW about as investible as something that is more risky than investing in China but less risky than investing in Russia.
- Bell Inquiry 2 will likely find unsuitable to hold licence or more likely will leave high regulation in place making Star Sydney unprofitable for the foreseeable suture
- My hope is that in order to refi, pay AUSTRAC, cope with staged opening through to 2026 that sometime in the next two years, Star will sell Treasury Brisbane and get out of NSW and use any additional balance sheet cash from these sales to buy back shares over next decade.

- Queensland Government is a more favourable regulatory environment, tourism Qld and Aust (where Olympics is concerned) is a positive, asset ownership and leases more favourable than Sydney Star.
- I'm looking at this more as a property/REIT play in my valuations but also looking at 99 year timeframe, ie., will it benefit my children and/or grandchildren if shares are passed to them eventually.
- Once the fully operational income of the Qld assets is known post-2026, and post the 2032 Olympics, when hopefully there are fewer shares on issue, this investment may look worthwhile to have in the family to pass down to others.

I don't think Robbie and the current team will be the one to action the above but keen to see how they navigate from here to 2026 QWB full opening.

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Oldbloke is one of the wisest investors I know of on HC. I think his analysis hits the nail on the head. SGR should be viewed as a long term investment, but one which could be quite rewarding when eventually we get to “the other side” of the rather dark place we are in at the moment. Of course, most of what he says goes out the window if we suddenly get taken over and are all forced sellers…but that would be at a decent price relative to today’s.

SGR Price at posting: 52.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
4 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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