NAN 2.55% $2.81 nanosonics limited

At the AGM I got the impression that this was a business that...

  1. 783 Posts.
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    At the AGM I got the impression that this was a business that was succeeding in spite of hospital budget cuts.

    I'm quite annoyed with myself over the position I'm in now because I didn't get the same impression as you did from the AGM. I thought the AGM comments at the time hinted strongly at a lack of ongoing momentum but decided to ignore my inclinations apart from lightening my holding slightly.
    All of the AGM concerns about sales growth moving forward have merely cemented themselves into reality.

    In my own little world of make believe I expected that revenue, for quite some years, would need to include about 3,000 new units per annum along with close to the same number of upgrade units per annum as those units sold in 2016, 2017 etc. gradually required replacement. This was necessary to justify the $4 to $5 sales price.
    We are nowhere near those numbers currently.

    It's not simply that the current numbers are a far way off that concerns me, but that the shortfall seems to be linked to tight hospital budgets.
    Now, I'll admit that I've never worked in a hospital in any capacity, but I suspect that tight hospital budgets aren't exactly a new phenomenon. I'm sure they've been around for years and will continue to be around for many years to come.
    So, I'm not sure how the momentum can be altered significantly and in a timely manner.

    I suspect the problem, at least in part, is due to the cleansing equipment being a discretionary spend. That's not to suggest that hospitals don't care about cleanliness, but budget pressures may find administrators choosing to continue with the status quo (whatever that happens to be) rather than tie up capital budgets with a unit/product which offers a return across a seven-year period.

    And for all this time, the clock is ticking. Patents that support NAN's unique position will start to run out in a few years' time, and cost competitiveness will rear its ugly head.
    They sound like they're about to start discounting their price as of now in order to keep the sales momentum moving forward,

    There is a small "other side to the coin" however.
    These guys spend a lot of money on Research and Development and expense it all when a lot of growth companies, in their early stages, capitalize their
    R and D.
    Their profit for 2023 was $19m after expensing $29m on R and D. If they'd capitalized this amount the results would have looked a lot different in the same way as they might when CORIS is complete.

    My sentiment is HOLD because I'm still thinking.


 
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