Ann: Habanero 3 Well Incident - Update , page-92

TA is very accurate and reliable under the following conditions:

a) Nothing is happening with the company.
b) The markets are in absolute dead water.
c) No change is likely to occur in the near to mid term (2 - 6 months).

In such situation graphs give a very good indication of market sentiment. The operative word, 'sentiment', can change at the drop of a hat. A single bit of real news can move or create a mountain. Why look backwards mindlessly to predict the future when one can rationally consider all the forward options, give them a weighting, and determine the probable effects? The error bars on such careful analysis are going to be much narrower (far more accurate) than extrapolations from lines that are nowhere near best fit to points.

90% of TA is plain nonsense but it makes people feel they are engaging or contributing if they also participate in the psychobabble. The remaining 10% does contain some value in that it gives the learning experience in the degree of correlation between the event and the resultant price change, i.e. a cause and effect understanding. Various people say its a case of either using TA or FA but neither is sufficient to determine present share price. A third input required is an active awareness of how particular group psychology will likely react to stimulus in the coming 'N' days.

Perhaps I should hasten to add that I think graphs are wonderful things but should be kept in an appropriate perspective.

Juke