Ann: Half Year 2013 Report and Appendix 4D , page-4

  1. 1,956 Posts.
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    I would, especially considering where they have come from in recent times. Its all relative.

    All the business ratios look sound to me.

    This stock isnt for the layman. Volatility in earnings will occur around these levels of business activity as it is still very uncertain. I believe we are at the low and starting to turn, however its too early to call offically.The company actually beat guidance, but it will go unnoticed by the market and layman.

    Ancedotal evidence is pointing to growth. Entering at this stage is where you'll make your money. Or lose it.

    Clearly managment believe improvement this half. I am looking forward to it as macro/micro factors look to align:
    1. Continuing depreciation of AUD (greater market share)
    2. Lower/cut interest rates, per RBA guidance (more mortagages, more disposable income), hence more home improvements and more hpusing being built.
    3. LME prices falling (input into extrusions)
    4. Operating costs are continuing to fall.
    5. Market share maintained (leader) - will only take not lose if they are maintaining share at the bottom.
    6. Instos/director buying (professionals see value)
    7. Industry thematics - time to buy index. ‘time to buy a dwelling index’ which is now up at levels last seen in late 2008 and 2001. This index has historically been a good lead indicator of dwelling approvals, with a high (80%) correlation with dwelling approvals when lagged by 12mth. This would suggest a surge in dwelling approvals in the back end of CY13e.

    Many indicators like this point to improvement.

 
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