From Dec quarterly
66% of production was tech grade or approx 2,800t
3,131t of sales in Dec quarter. So it looks like about 1,100t of tech grad carbonate is sitting in inventory over at Naraha
anyone know the conversion ratio tech grade carb to battery grade hydroxide? 1.2x is in my head for some reason.
at 85% utilisation rate and on spec battery grade churning out already =
(0.85x run rate pa 10,000)/12
approx 700t per month
plant has been running for 2 months for the March quarter plus approx 700t for month of March, we could easily see 1,000t of hydroxide sold on the spot market this current quarter.
75% ownership 750 x $70k pt
approx USD$50m
perhaps that why they are throttling production from Mount Catlin. Substituting higher grade product with lower grade material. Naraha sales offset the loss of revenue and they can extend life of mine selling into high pricing environment. Ohh yeah of course also sending a polite message to our indirect customer CATL (via Yahua) to think again re discounting… of course total speculation. BUT it was only 4 weeks ago, the market was informed that head grade at MC was returning to life of mine assumptions.
If you listen closely to the conference call, They are very confident that they will produce more than the 124k user guidance. Perhaps some return serve from the board. Well done if this is the case and of course we will never know.
stage 2 about to fire up from April onwards, how exciting. Been a long wait. As per the above image from the Dec quarterly, they have high levels of brine build up inventory as the ponds have been evaporating for months waiting for the constructing of the carbonate plant to finalise. I am expecting huge volume and of high grade in the June quarter.
all of the above should see us pump through $20 by end of financial year. I will be investing accordingly.
let’s go team.
also of note from the call was the standard first cab off the rank in Qand A, who I wont name. The second analysts had the respect, decency and good nature to pay respects to Neil Kaplan who tragically passed away. This was a a monumental contrast in charter and unsurprising.
*sips tea…
finally, fantastic explanation of the pricing situation in the market with plant shut downs, Chinese lunar new year, over heated spot carb price, ev subsidy removal, season demand dip among other things contributing to the convergence to contract average pricing. Short term adjustment with long term fundamentals and structural tightness still well and truely in tact.
enjoy the weekend
not advice
