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pCap we made it matewe believed in it and our forecast became reality.
I dialled into conference but I am overseas now so it was hard to focus at 2 amanyway Grange for me tonight as it was too stressful last 8 months but worth it. No more shares for me, I stopped buying after $4.34 in October but I was buying since $3.28. I loaded too much but violating the diversification rules was good in this case.
Ross and Darren were very upbeat and optimistic about H2 and beyond. They sounded like the strategy is working and as I said before 17.5 mil FY is very conservative. As you stated I am targeting npat of 18.5mil minimum. I suspect they put conservative guidance as I would not be surprised to have a trading update in April... this time on a positive note to make up for last year disaster - especially that cost saving initiatives will help in H2.
I agree with your points. Market will now rethink and reread reports and realise that current levels are still low. I ran some intrinsic value analysis and I think we should see $8 by ex divvy date. Funds will get onto it. To your point we should see $10-$11 by October if they deliver what they promise. Anyway if they maintain 2% comparable same store sales then we are heading for a cracker half. It should not be impossible after last year disaster. I like their branded products offer which sits around 40% of the portfolio now according to Ross.
The equity is now at $5.5 per share so come on, we are only one dollar above it. ROE should come around 14% - not bad either. Divvy should come at 40c, operating cash flow very strong.
Also there is something cooking behind the scenes. Ross was very mysterious about it but he said the company identified the possibility to explore new incremental sales channel and they will try it. It sounded like stores under new brand or they identified takeover target??????? I think it is worth holding till August. I am not selling a single share till FY result.
P pCap we made it mate :) we believed in it and our forecast...
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