Ann: Half Year Financial Report, page-13

"If this is delayed 12 months - imo this project can be canned or scaled down"

If it is delayed further, they will more likely scale up and export. Margins per tonne would be lower than local sales but higher volumes into an export market can mostly offset the lower margins.

As far as I know, the port would be ready for exports early 2026. If they start production later next year and can only produce a part of what they hoped to have ready for local sales for that growing season, they can still produce non stop at full scale and sell the bulk into the export market. They don't need to wait for the following Angolan growing season. Then they could rebalance the ratio of local sales to export sales for the following Angolan growing season.
It is wrong to assume that missing the bulk of the Angolan growing season means they can't start up and scale up fast. With exports, they would want to scale up faster and that’s what the financiers want Minbos to do - go straight to stage 2. That would be so they can export. Stage 1 was enough for local sales even at the higher production guidance.
While the South African MOU isn't binding, the intentions of the South African IDC that majority owns Foskor are clear based on their arranging and approving credit for the project. That doesn't guarantee anything but it's always a matter of risk versus reward.
The current Minbos sp is factoring in a lot of risk because the current market cap is only a fraction of the project’s after tax NPV.