Correct me if I'm wrong but here is some cost curve commentary:
~125 NEWC is 75th percentile of the cost curve.
~100 NEWC is 50th percentile of the cost curve.
Spot is currently 120ish so we're well into the cost curve now.
WHC's costs inc. royalties are ~85 USD based on recent guidance which sits around the 25th percentile.
Should spot get to WHC's breakeven cost, ~75% of global export production will disappear.
Remember what happened post oil trading negative during COVID - same would happen to coal out the other side (on steroids) should we see a short term crash deep into the cost curve due to a global shutdown.
"The cure for low prices is low prices"
I agree with all in favour of a BB at current equity levels. Some of the $$$ earned from a selldown could be used to BB 100M shares = $700m @ $7/s or $800m @ $8/s.
Either way, it's a fun time dissecting this major transformation and the possible pathways it could go.
WHC Price at posting:
$6.84 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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