I was searching for a decent cost curve yesterday to do a...

First 172 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
ShareJagger

11,590 Posts.

1394

21/02/24

11:44

Post #: 72513087
Share

Originally posted by lukeytrags: ↑

Correct me if I'm wrong but here is some cost curve commentary:

~125 NEWC is 75th percentile of the cost curve.

~100 NEWC is 50th percentile of the cost curve.

Spot is currently 120ish so we're well into the cost curve now.

WHC's costs inc. royalties are ~85 USD based on recent guidance which sits around the 25th percentile.

Should spot get to WHC's breakeven cost, ~75% of global export production will disappear.

Remember what happened post oil trading negative during COVID - same would happen to coal out the other side (on steroids) should we see a short term crash deep into the cost curve due to a global shutdown.

"The cure for low prices is low prices"

I agree with all in favour of a BB at current equity levels. Some of the $$$ earned from a selldown could be used to BB 100M shares = $700m @ $7/s or $800m @ $8/s.

Either way, it's a fun time dissecting this major transformation and the possible pathways it could go.

Expand

I was searching for a decent cost curve yesterday to do a similar post. I wish I could find the data by mine, does anybody have access?
I believe the Data would show that a large number of the mines above 75th Quartile would be politically incentivized to keep operating.
So this is FOB, CFR would be interesting for say India, Japan, China.

WHC Price at posting: $6.76 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply