In further answers, re guidance for FY 22, it doesn't give quantitative forecasts. It is however good and summarised in the presentation.
Opportunities are being looked at across the Board in 10 different areas. It likes diversification as a hedge.
CFO Mr Lewis said that a good return on ROIC is double digit in the operating division, generally speaking. Bluescope contract has a lag as it required $100 million in prior capital expenditure.
Patricks is generating six per cent, not exciting, but the true return to QUB is far higher given its importance. It may track towards 10 per cent, the standard for QUB overall over the medium term.
Cost inflation: many contracts are one to three, or one to five, years at which expiry QUB can possibly reset the cost base. There may also be some room within the contract to do that, or drive other improvements. There can be a lag of six months in passing on some costs, but overall it's reasonably balanced if there are abnormal cost changes.
Re franking credit levels, it won't be a constraint so much as may be the retained earnings.
December 2022 is when Moorebank terminal tax is payable (not Dec 2023 as stated above).
In the agricultural area, in 2H 22, QUB only had three months' earnings from the newish Newcastle port facility so 2H 22 will give a full six months' earnings.
There's uplift if QUB can move the wheat and other agricultural products more efficiently. It's buying two extra rakes of rail wagons. It's heavily weighted to NSW so QUB could perhaps look elsewhere.
There have been strong logistics volumes across the country, not just NSW, and customers have moved from 'just in time' to 'just in case'. Some steel and other cargo is going into break bulk due to the high cost of containers, helping the AAT containers. Bulk has increased its relative share compared to containers.
Margin decline in WA has to improve, and needs more 'labour in'. There were short term inflationary issues given historically WA was highly reliant on east coast Australian labour coming across. There might be increased absenteeism for a while.
The NZ forestry downturn was due to an October 2021 lockdown and Chinese demand dropping off but the CEO said it should return in March and April 2022.
QUB had JobKeeper last year, but not this year.
BlueScope will be QUB's #1 or #2 customer in FY 22. Introduction of these major rail movements went smoothly despite Omicron.
QUB hopes for margin improvements like-for-like.
Moorebank IMEX has extra volume (see above) compared to what QUB thought, perhaps with more 'catchment' than just 'tenants.' It may be a bit ahead on the expected run rate for acquiring business.
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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