MSB 8.42% $1.03 mesoblast limited

Ann: Half Year Report and Accounts (including Appendix 4D), page-286

  1. 5,777 Posts.
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    Just want to be clear about something. When I post articles like the one above, it is to counter the downrampers who insist on a pessimistic prediction as a certainty. For example, "there will be no FDA approvals, not even accelerated approvals or EUAs, without further trials." I am not saying that there will be such approvals, or even that they are probable. I don't have the ability to place odds on something with so many unknown variables. What I am saying is that such approvals are a possibility, and nobody posting on HC has the insider knowledge to declare otherwise.

    I also believe that eventual approvals for a number of different indications are highly probable, given the results we have seen with Mesoblast and other stem cell therapies. I believe this will eventually provide a good return for shareholders. But I have no idea how long it will take, or where the share price will go in the meantime. Yes, I expect partnership announcements to come, and expect share price increases whenever they do. But I also expect downward drift in between such announcements, and share price drops whenever we learn that one of our hoped for "possibilities" doesn't pan out. People can say that all the bad news is already priced in, but I don't believe that. As long as people like me hold hope for things like an EUA for Covid ARDS or CLBP, that hope is supporting the price to some extent.

    Don't let the downrampers talk you into giving up your shares at a discount. But don't let the uprampers lead you to invest more than you can afford or more than you feel comfortable putting at risk. Be especially cautious if you have a short term investment horizon. Nothing wrong with being here for the short term; we all face different priorities and constraints. But just know that you could lose a lot of money in the short run, and if you aren't able to hold, you may regret it. On the flip side, if you can afford to invest and can afford to ride out any downturns, then waiting to invest could cause you to miss out if the price should skyrocket. And that is most definitely a possibility, if we do somehow get FDA approval on something prior to doing further trials, or if we get any buyout offers.

    And I don't want to hear downrampers saying that buyout offers aren't possible without reasonable prospects of commercialization in the short term. This kind of thing happens all the time. Not saying I would want Mesoblast to sell out, but I would be happy to see a bidding war.



 
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