I'm a fan of NextDC's services and have been out to S1 and it is an immensely impressive building. But I find it hard to explain their valuation.
FWIW I was an early NXT holder but sold out ~15 months ago as I couldn't see how they would justify the market cap in the foreseeable future. I'm not here to naysay but genuinely trying to understand how the market is valuing NXT with a view to getting back in if it makes sense.
Forecast EBITDA of $8m for FY15 at the top end. 193m shares on issue, $2.40 puts it at a $463m market cap. Subtracting the $62m cash we're still looking at $400m.
I guess if EBITDA doubled through FY16 and FY17 then we're looking at EBITDA of $32m for FY17 which puts it vaguely in the ballpark for today's market cap. But it's still super high.
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