Sorry I skipped one of your questions After Q2 Report I adjusted my estimate for H1 profit to 56 M they only made 39M. Let me say clearly without seeing at least Q3 report in Late april As well as NdPr prices at that time I cannot even make a reasonable guess. It is Unlikely they will go into red. Posible yes, but I would not count on it. Red profit is just a point on a line. It does have emotional value for many. Lynas has 934M shares out standing they need yearly profits of about AU$ 300M to support a $6.00 stock price at a PE of 20. Is there any difference between profits being -$10M or +$10 M. Not realy, it is just in people's minds. Even if they make 100M in H2 which is above my high side estimate that is down over 40% YOY. Up over 2.5X from H1 but H1 was very bad. As more and more bad results come out people will be less likely to say next Period will be better.
The counter argument to this is I said SP would be below $5.50 on Monday March 11th. We can be reasonable sure at this point it will be higher. Again I underestimated the emotion holding this SP up. Sooner or later Price earning will control price. It has for over 400 years that stock markets have been in existence. People will always become emotional over some sector and move the price much higher than justified. In the last 24 years Emotion propelled differnt sectors higher. First it was DOT COM, Then banks. Then Green and now AI People just want to believe there is something special that will break all the rules. During this period SP's for the in fashion sector do break all the rules. When the exuberance fades then the stock go back to following all the traditional rules.
You have to say what big 7 stocks you are talking about so I can comment. I suspect they are either AI stocks which are experiencing the same uncontrolled speculation that Lynas did a half dozen years ago. Or Tech stocks that are growing profits rapidly. Big 7 is just not well defined and I am not going to spend time analyzing a stock just to have you say that was not on your list. Per usual the optimists supplies no detail to back what they say. Lets keep it simple and start with just two that support your case. and whose primary product has dropped from over a 1000 RMB WV to 361 RMB Can you find one that has a Revenue and earnings chart that looks like this. Glad to talk about any stock you think breaks the rules but you have to name one or two first. Which you probably will not do because specifics are so much harder to defend then general unnamed things. In H2 2022 profits were AU$384M H1 2024 39M. Do any of you mystical 7 have a 90% Earnings drop in 6 Qs? Do any have any drop at all? When Lynas share price was over $11.xx April- May 2022 profits had jumped from AU 157M 384 M in one year and they were part of a very hot sector, which is no longer hot, still warm but fading fast. What Do you think I am missing connecting profits to stock price?
So typical. cannot argue against Facts so blame it all on evil intents by me. None of which are true. Most people give this up in their Teens.
LYC Price at posting:
$6.11 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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