Ann: Half Year Results Analyst Presentation, page-118

"i short RHC a few years ago at around $68... it was overvalued"


Here on HotCopper we hear all sorts of great, after-the-fact investment heroics.

However, for someone who boasts past shorting profits on RHC, there is no evidence of it at all; only the following series of posts:

1.) Declaring the stock to be very expensive on 31 Dec 2013 (at a price of ~$43):

https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/12754421/single


2.) Declaring 6 Feb 2014 that you had gone short on (Price at the time $41.30):

https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/12899224/single


After that date, the stock promptly gapped up to $48, and you were not heard from again, until

3) 11 Feb 2015 when you said you again "put a short on RHC (lol my 2nd attempt at short) yesterday at $61.90" but then you closed that short on the very next day because you were "concerned about FX increasing the profit due to fall in AUD$"

https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14738423/single


4) But then you placed another short just a week later (price of $62.81 at the time of post)
(your fears of an AUD fall appear to have been very short-lived)

https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14783066/single


5) And then just a few hours later that same day, you declare you had closed your short position again (price at the time of post = $62.80), claiming - somehow - an 8% gain (despite the stock remaining largely unchanged after your declared short position)

https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14786396/single


6) And then, just a few days after your unsuccessful previous dabbles at shorting RHC, on 26 Feb 2015, you were suddenly singing the praises of the company's financial results which were released that day ("it is a very good result for investors (long term holders); 20% profit growth forecast for the year, up from the previously flagged 16% growth forecast" and in subsequent posts on the day of the results, "shorters absolutely smashed - stuck holding the bag" and "RHC has beat all analyst forecasts")

https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14820618/single


And, curiously, you have not been seen on the RHC threads since.


So, lots of evidence of failed attempts to short at levels lower down than $68.
But no evidence at all to give even the slightest hint of a profitable short from $68.

Like I said at the outset, we all kinds of heroic investment stories on HotCopper.

Quite often, though, my experience is that the greater the heroic investment stories, the less evidence exists to back them up.



As for CSL's P/E history - and thank you for providing it - they say a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing, and in this case there are a few crucial things your somewhat crude data overlooks:

1. Bond yields have halved over the past decade, which has had the knock-on impact of lowering earnings yields for listed equities (i.e., there was a structural re-rating of their P/E's);

2. CSL's R&D - which, as explained in earlier posts - is today equivalent to one-third of the company's Pre-Tax Profit, whereas in 2008, it came to less than one-quarter, meaning earnings today are far more understated than they were back then;

3. In FY2009 CSL acquired Talecris in a US$3.1bn, once-a-generation transformative deal, which totally changed the industry structure and dynamics, and provided CSL with access to a wide portfolio of development opportunities which it did not possess before that; and

4. The P/E for 2009/10/11 would have been depressed by the bear market that was accompanied by the GFC and the Greek Debt Crisis.


So when you compare CSL's P/E today, with its P/E in the past, for a number of important reasons, you are comparing apples with oranges.


No matter.

Good luck with your CSL shorting; you might be lucky enough to end up on the right side of sheer market randomness.