Just recording some thoughts, not trying to change any minds...

Just recording some thoughts, not trying to change any minds here.

It's a sell into strength for me. CSL is now at its highest valuation premium (relative to its own history) ever so that's one reason.

Second is that management has delivered "upside" case - Sequirus integration, increased market penetration for the Behring products so there is no downside in the price now. Note that some of the market penetration was due to competitor issues in getting product to market / FDA hurdles not being met.

Third is that it's got a clear R&D bias for next 18m - 24m so positive earnings surprises will be muted for that period - obviously with the potential for a 5-10 year payoff especially for the large P3 trials for preventing repeat heart attacks.

Given the macro environment (quantitative tightening) and stage of the credit cycle I don't think the valuation premium can be sustained in the face of secular non-company specific headwinds. CSL will remain strong it just won't trade at the same historically high valuation premium that it currently does.

Summary - sold into strength after buying at $90-95, will happily buy again closer to $115 - $120.