BWX 0.00% 20.0¢ bwx limited

In my view there are two key issues at play weighing on the...

  1. 995 Posts.
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    In my view there are two key issues at play weighing on the stock: weak performance from acquisitions and the jump in marketing and selling expenses.

    There has clearly been a significant miss from all three acquisitions, with Mineral Fusion in particular looking quite weak.

    Increased marketing costs have weighed on margins and have coincided with increased activity across the board as the Sukin range is launched into the grocery market in Aus and the company continues to build its brand image internationally. Some of this would appear to be purely transitional and a one-off investment in building further brand image and awareness.

    However, in spite of these issues the core existing business continues to appear relatively strong with Sukin revenues up 17% pcp and gross margins stable despite the introduction of the product to the grocery market. Importantly, the brand continued to gain market share in Australia.

    While the result definitely was not rosy, I think having nearly a third of the company's market value shaved off in a single session is a gross over reaction. BWX remains in a very attractive market with a focus on the high growth natural and organic products segment that is growing significantly more rapidly than GDP in developed and emerging markets. The international expansion opportunity for Sukin remains tremendous. If they can achieve a fraction of their Australian success in international markets like the US, UK, Canada and China, today's action will be a blip on the chart in a few years.

    Hopefully management get their act together, bed down these acquisitions and leverage them to expand their brand universe across lucrative markets globally. If they can achieve this and avoid making any additional acquisitive blunders, which they will be under increased scrutiny from SHs to avoid, international markets will catapult the SP to new highs over time.

    Taking management's FY18 guidance at face value ($42m-$46m), BWX is trading at a mid-point forward EV/EBITDA of ~15x and a forward PE of <22. For a growth stock with a track record for high double-digit growth, this appears to be a very attractive entry point, withstanding any future issues with the underlying Sukin business.
 
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