Hey Cam. Once again enjoyed your analysis and I never fail to learn something - thanks.
A few observations and questions: In the last two results presentations both the CEO and CFO have expressed just how much importance they know many investors put on dividends. So i'm thinking that part of that lovely FCF won't be so free come the JH13 report.
A question from that - what debt level do think management will be happy to live with long term? Or will they balance divs with debt pay down until zero?
I like that your analysis is always conservative and lacking in accounting smoke and mirrors. I notice you made little or no mention of the "Competitive refinancing agreement on Improved terms". That is the companies debt will cost them less to service going forward. Also the interest rate swap that cost the company $1.2m in the DH12 - it matures in Feb 2014. Question - how much of the debt would the interest rate swap instigated in 2008 cover? Would the "$1.2m" (Am I right in assuming the size of that drag is dependent on the market interest rates versus the terms of the rate swap?) drag end completely in Feb 2014? Will it revert to the Improved terms recently negotiated.
I see in the presentation that they are "not expecting" to incur any further restructuring costs after the $5.1m from DH12. However (of course) management say they will happen if they are needed due to segment weakness. I know your analysis can only be done on the numbers we have but "possible" restructing costs must be considered as a possible downside".
Thanks again Cam. Your analysis is very much appreciated.
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