"Outlook for a repeat of 1H in 2HFY11", is not correct, rather...

"Outlook for a repeat of 1H in 2HFY11", is not correct, rather they have forecast a flat performance on the pcp.

Company has forecast approx 10% yoy year increase, so if you take this at face value then using the 1st half results:

Full 2009/2010 year was npat of $25.6mio. Meaning they are looking for a 2010/2011 result of $28.2mio, taking away the $16.9mio for the 1st half means they are forecasting a 2nd half result of $11.3mio.

The send half result for 2009/2010 was $11.5mio, therefore not withstanding a good 1st half they are forecasting (at best) a flat yoy for the 2nd half.

On the FX front, given they cover 6mths forward then the gradual appreciation of the AUD will help the 2nd half.

The average AUD/USD FX rate they would have achieved (in theory) for their 1st half was 0.8935 (pcp 0.7120) and the 2nd half should be 0.9371 (pcp 0.8680).

I have held MCP for many years and they have been a good stock. My current thinking is they have had a good run thanks to the strong Aussie, but this has now run its course. They need new income streams otherwise when the Aussie turns (as it will) they will struggle.

Reckon $3.15 - $3.50 is fair value based on what we know.