NHC new hope corporation limited

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Ann: Half Year Results Presentation, page-134

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Hopeful9

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22/05/23

16:12

Post #: 67900647
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Originally posted by Psalty: ↑

Hi Noomxx
Well done on your switch in and out of coal.
I switched in similar to you and am sitting on good capital gains and dividend income (mainly NHC and WDS). I haven't switched out yet and agree commodities are cyclical and there will be a time to switch out, and the optimum time may already have passed. We'll only know in hindsight unfortunately.

To assist my thinking I will now list why I am holding and why I should be selling:

Why Sell?
- commodities are cyclical (after a boom comes a bust)
- thermal coal hit all time highs ~US$450/t and has retraced significantly to ~US$160/t, and shows no signs of being near support.
- taxes may go up.

Why Hold?
- US$160/t is still much higher than the historical trading range of 50-80 with spikes to 110.
- at FY2022 NHC has reported a significant chunk of forward sales contracts to July 2023 at ~400 and has often commented that they have a solid forward sales book (this is all from memory so don't nitpick on my terminology). Milner commented that they are surprised how long coal stayed up so high.
- New Acland expansion will soon boost the business.
- Bengalla expansion will also soon boost production.
- there is huge underinvestment in fossil fuels, particularly thermal coal because the media and greenies hate it and politicians dance to their tune.
- NHC coal is top quality whereas stories of China, Indonesia ramping up production is low quality coal. Russian coal was a threat to NHC but now bears a stigma.
- US Federal Reserve has inflated money supply causing inflation so the current price of coal is relatively low. (I.e. 50/t ten years ago is how much today?).
- the Milner's are smart and wealthy and still buying up here.
- I have raised portfolio cash levels significantly and can't find anything to buy, what would I buy if I sold NHC.
- dividend yield is very good and likely to be good for at least the next one, I.e. FY2023 final.
- the share buybacks will soon have an impact.
- Asia and other growing populations/economies are not following Europe and Australia who are strangling themselves with green and red tape. So fossil fuel usage will not
slump.
- in the event of EV's continuing to remain popular then gas and coal use will be required to charge them.
- ESG investing is being found out as just another financial product/scam being sold to the sheeple.

Am sure there are more Pro's and Cons, please feel free to add them (got errands to do).

Expand

Very good points: excellent thoughts.

If I may add one more reason to consider purchasing (but DYOR!), Robert Millner (note surname spelling) usually looks after small retail holders, not just the big institutions like GS.

He doesn't get everything correct, as we've discussed with the convertible notes, but a majority of the time he's on the ball.

Look at the great records of BKW and SOL if anyone doubts the above.

NHC Price at posting: $5.15 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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