Interesting looking at the stock based compensation which isn't chicken feed. Very low bar set operationally for vesting & a decent lick are non dependent on operational parameters at all....they're based on rolling tenure. That hardly aligns management with shareholders....that's 'lifestyle' and disappointing but not surprising.
Knew the numbers would be disappointing, there's no surprise there. I really dislike quoting 'adjusted' numbers that dismiss losses on hedges. They are a legitimate accounting cost. That's obfuscation, not that Calima is the only company that does it to cover over lame numbers. No doubt in the next half they won't be using the 'adjusted' numbers on a comparative basis, it'll be the statutory figures to compare to dress things up.
Montney, they can't monitize. Period. They have good clarity on comp sales on surrounding acreage so I have no idea what an impediment to deal making is. Not sure what to make of this now. They indicate they've had interest from a good number of parties...yet no deal....what gives?
Buyback- they can't afford to really hit it. The business is sucking up all the cashflow in both maintenance & growth capital. Sure they'll get unhedged exposure to pricing but that's predicated on an assumption that pricing received with be the same at least. The commitment to drilling the newly acquired acreage will require further capital negating some of any expected gains forward without hedging loss constraints. The business is going to get appreciably bigger in production output but GW was misleading in telling shareholders they were running this for maximal returns of cashflow to shareholders- it's the opposite. We'll see token amounts I think, the rest getting ploughed back into the biz. Patience for the next few years required now (Montney monitization excepted) I think but you're taking a sizeable risk with operational execution & commodity pricing over the time frame (have a look at oil & gas historical price cycles) which could pay off in spades if everything goes right. If it doesn't, I don't want to think of the loss of cash coming to shareholders that would have been the case if GW followed through on his undertaking for running it for cash returns rather than growth. 9 months ago I was confident the risk/reward was in my favour at 20c. Now at 12c, it's a coin toss for me.
Good luck holders. Time will tell.
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