"The value per share of the $3.1m provision to repay customers affected by using the wrong lending criteria is worth more than the 1.6c per share that I mentioned in the first paragraph – it's worth $3.1m ÷ 155.5m ≈ 2c, and so the underlying EPS was 9.8c +2c = 11.8c."
I am not comfortable seeing the 3.1M as a one off unless somebody can show me where they raised the provision in the accounts. I will peruse the point with you one more time P in case you or somebody else can point me to the evidience that could change my mind.
Impairment losses for the half booked to the P&L were 14,769M.
The investor presentation gave actual losses as 11,300M
The difference between the two figures of 3,469M is either non-disclosed and presumably immaterial actual losses but most likely predominantly increase in provision for impairment.
If you take the changes in receivables balances and multiply it by the historical provision % by business unit then provision for impairment should theoretically have increased by 3,784M
An increase of 3,469M against a theoretical 3,784M seems reasonable, especially as credit quality should be improving in the consumer leasing business with all the regulatory attention on lending standards.
What I don’t see is an additional 3.1M provision for the HPI issue. So the only reasonable presumption I can make is that the 3.1M provision for the lending criteria issue is an earmarking of the existing provision rather than new money allocated to the issue in this half – That is why I think management hasn’t flagged it as a one off cost for the half and why we shouldn’t treat it as one either.
Ie they didn’t raise the provision this half they just carved out/earmarked/allocated however you like to describe it, 3.1m of the existing provision and stated that should cover the issue.
If they did specifically make 3.1M provision for it then only 369K has been added in addition provisioning against an estimated 3,784M and that would have me asking serious questions about profit result massaging.
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