htran, the current face value needs to be adjusted downwards for the current loans that are on creditwatch and the likely recovery will be closer to nil.
When you back them out of the figures, the current MTM value of the creditworthy assets is 82.7 cents on the dollar based on the 31 Dec figures. If the 31 Dec NTA was 34.16 at .827 of adjusted face value, then the full realistic face value would be 41.3 cents. (I realise this is a bit if a crude calculation).
Also bear in mind that it could take several years to extract that full face value, so some account needs to be taken into account on the present value in today's money of that future value.
I would think anything approaching 40 cents will be rapidly voted in by unitholders. Even mid 30s would get the nod. If you want more than 50 cents you would need to hold these units indefinitely, unleast up to 2020 to realise everything at the face value you are seeking.
Have a rethink on your target numbers?
Happy to discuss this further.
MXQ Price at posting:
18.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
