The chances of success are much greater than 1:100 but you can't...

The chances of success are much greater than 1:100 but you can't really argue about pricing. The chances of the IV TBI phase II trial being positive stands at likely < 50%, and if it fails then this company does not have much hard to fall back on. So yes, if it is positive, it is grossly underpriced, but if it fails the price will fall significantly. The price now reflects the appetite for risk out there - are you willing to lose a lot of your money on a < 50% bet given the economic environment. I'm sure if it was the same scenario 5 years ago the price would have been several times higher, but not now. Also the increase in timeframe before results will be known is not helping the price. On the plus side, however, the chart as noted by someone earlier this week does look like a breakout may be close...