GEM 0.00% $1.30 g8 education limited

Ann: Half Yearly Report and Accounts, page-7

  1. 11,154 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 685
    Well let anybody short it who wants to - I care not - lol.

    The metrics on page 6 and 7 are outstanding, and demonstrate added value after the acquisitions. Like for like centre EBIT is up 17% (held for the full initial term of comparison), whereas for H2 14 they were up about 9%, and for h1 14 up about 9% as well. That is a significant boost to the LFL metric. I admit I am surprised they did so well, so longed the close.

    I wouldn't worry about the value of the good-will too much. Obviously you wouldn't give away a childcare centre that is profitable, if you owned one. This figure approximates what they were bought for and likely is less than they can now be sold for, given that metrics have improved if you look at the like for likes. I suspect we might see a broker upgrade GEM for this very reason, but who knows? Lets see what happens tomorrow.

    I don't have time to put together a detailed spreadsheet with every acquisition - but looks to me that we are on target for eps of about 28 cps FY very roughly, simply using a 30/70 split.

    From about 4.2 cps to 28 cps over five years would be a growth rate of about 46% per annum (same growth rate over 4 years last year too). I doubt that is sustainable at such a high level, but surely warrants a higher PE than the rough 11x we are on at the moment.

    The market is telling GEM to offer 83 cps for AFJ I suspect. That really is factored in to the GEM SP I expect.
 
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