CTP central petroleum limited

Consequently, the Company now expects the market imbalance to...

  1. 8,773 Posts.
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    Consequently, the Company now expects the market imbalance to last for 5 to 7 years before returning to historical trends.
    (so demand outstrips supply for a period of 5 yrs to 7 yrs (not forever))

    Markets always balance over time and the real question remains to what extent the rebalancing is caused by permanent demand destruction versus increase in supply.
    so that period of demand will outstrip supply will be determined by businesses going broke/going overseas/getting supply from alternative sources such as non-fossil fuels etc) OR supply of gas increases to balance the demand.

    Two points should be noted as a result of this belief (that demand imbalance will last for 5-7yrs), namely it is imperative:

    1. To have the capital to develop the maximum reserves in time for sales in the second half of next year;
    to take advantage of the window of imbalance, CTP must have maximum reserves (2P or 2C) by 2nd half 2018, so that it cam commit to GSA's.

    and

    2. Any delay in proving up reserves that cause the sales to be contracted after 2021 may be at historical
    trend price rather than that obtaining during the shortfall.
    if CTP does not act now, it will miss the boat, and prices will drop

    imho, CTP are telling us we need to do a deal now. And MBL are the ones at the table.
    And didn't RC say the same thing just recently?
    IMHO, a deal will be presented to s/h, and RC is telling us we need capital now, and we need to get moving now so that we can supply into the NGP opening. If we cannot provide the certainty of security of supply to customers for that period of 5-7yrs from now, then CTP will miss the boat.


    is that how others interpret this??
    Last edited by jake0002: 08/03/17
 
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