I have followed the company for around 12 months. And have a modest holding (which is firmly in the RED).
I would agree that the lack of peer group makes Windlab difficult for investors to gauge or understand the business model.
The recent delays to Lakeland and Infrared are a pain, but still only a 3 month delay... hardly worth a 15% share price fall!
My take on WND is that the sexy part of the business is the development phase. Yields a 10x return on investment (basically $2M of development costs turns into $20M of revenue on financial close (once the offtake agreements, approvals, permits financing etc are in place). Whether windlab choose to retain and equity stake or not is a secondary consideration, as in some instances they do not (e.g. Coopers Gap for AGL, the USA projects, and I suspect in South Africa they won't hold on to a stake either). But this gives them optionality.
Having said that, I am comfortable with their equity stake approach. Kennedy Energy Park, Kiata and eventually lakeland, due to the recurring revenue streams as others have mentioned, including asset management fees of ~$1m per project. I think a good comparison for Windlab is actually a REIT / Property Developer if there are any out there. I suppose something like Folkstone or Mirvac (though I don't follow either). Given it the stability, and consistent earnings of Hard Assets. (Which can be resold if required to infrastructure funds or utility co's). + The more exciting side of the 10 x development returns. (The property market is somewhat similar, all of the margins and outsized profits belong to the developpers, more so that construction or the REIT-collecting landlords.
So I don't wish to overhype this stock.... but I think the 18 month timeline will be transformational. Add Lakeland (20 - 25% equity to Windlab when their reinvest their fee) to thew current book value (which included Kennedy and Kiata) and would get $75M = equal to current market cap. By end of 2019, recurring revenue will cover all of their costs, ~$10M per annum. Substantially de-risking the company (which will post a $2M loss for 2H18 also,most likely)..
Then the blue sky picture is the approval for the Kennedy Energy Park Stage 2 (Big Kennedy), this will deliver huge fees to Windlab, $50M for their 50% stake is my expectation. But this make be 18 - 24 months way, and is uncertain. Anyway, good luck to all holders. I am trying not to panic and looking at the Intrinsic value of the company, not the share price. After all, the Market once had Blue Sky (BLA) at $12, and Big Un was the best perfoming stock in 2017.... so how smart is the 'market' really?
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