It's great to see new blood here on the PNV forum, especially those that can ask inteligent questions, sadly a rare commodity in the recent past.
So if I may, having been invested in this company for nearly 15 years now.
In more recent times, especially since the shake up of the board, David Williams (COB) and Paul Brenan (CEO) coming on board and the continued and accelerating traction of BTM. Management has been reticent in giving forward forecast of revenue targets. This has been explained at length by management. But essentially it comes down to two major points and they being these.
1, Novosorb BTM as we all know is in it's formative stages of being introduced into hospitals around the world and management have been cautious from the outset to explain that sales month on month, quarter on quarter will be lumpy. They use this term regularly and an analysis of monthly sales certainly bares this out. But none the less accelerating as you have noticed.
2. Many share holders have asked for quarterly updates, esentially to monitor sales growth. But it's been stated catagorically by management, that at this stage of the companys growth cycle, they don't want to do that. One of the primary reasons being that they don't want to reveal to their opposition ( presumably Integra ) the market take up of BTM. Both total sales and number of hospitals now using BTM. As sales milestones are met, such as the first 1 million/month, then the first 2 million/month, management have made an announcement. December 2019 from memory was the first $2 million month. It's not unreasonable to expect that the first $3,000,000 month can't be too far away.
At the most recent AGM in Nov 2019, revenue growth was discussed and once again forecasts were not forth coming. But the question was answered by ( I can't remeber if it was PB or DW, but PB I think ). Now these are my words, but essential the response was as follows. "We won't give forward forecasts, for sales are lumpy and will continue to be so for the near term. But some analysts, including Maquarie have predicted that we should double revenue every year for the next 4 years or so and we don't necessarily disagree with that".
On the same subject PB said on the topic of market share, "we will take it". In regards to displacing Integra as the current leader in this space. Ok, a throw away line for sure. But when taken in the context of revolutionary new bench mark product in a billion dollar market, by a CEO who's barely set a foot wrong, by a company that is clearly focused, nimble, debt free and is not prone to hyperbole. It becomes very clear as to why PNV's share price, although currently doesn't make sense on paper. But four years from now $20,000,000 X 2 X 2 X 2 X 2 again, then todays share price could reasonble be argued as being very cheap. I guess it all depends upon your horizon. Clearly mine is years away.
GKP
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