The Covid 19 situation is unprecedented, and its impact is difficult to predict, but the level of governmental support to citizens and business is also unprecedented. Support is designed to cushion the blows and enable a rapid recovery, so will moderate the effects. https://treasury.gov.au/coronavirus
If LPE reduce income by 30% I see a wage subsidy scheme kicks in, under which $1500 per fortnight/employee is available. In some bizarre way it could even be positive in the longer term.
Bad debts are well managed by LPE in comparison to other electricity retailers, but there will be increasing exposure. When thinking through the SME exposure it may be more of a reduced use than bad debt problem. In the period in which consumption is normal it is business as normal, with LPE exposed on one billing cycle. Businesses that are effected, say the hair salon or small manufacturer will also be shut, and consume a minimal amount of power, so exposure to bad debt will naturally shrink.
In my mind this is a company that should still have revenue of over $45 m, with a current market cap of $10 m, operating in the go to sector of business for tough times
LPE Price at posting:
20.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
