Underlying (I think that's another word for normalised) EBITDA for September qtr was $3.2m. Still Covid issues aplenty and they turned the ship around. Logic would say that this will improve, as by memory, the festival season is in the December quarter and activity (Covid or not) should improve. If, and I believe it is, this EBITDA is sustainable in the longer term and should improve with other verticals of the business expanding, where will EBITDA be in 12 or 24 months?
If we pick a conservative (way less than $3.2m times 4) $10m for a year at a multiple of 10, that is $100m valuation. Take out the $25m net debt and it is $75m. Our share currently would be a touch over $18.5m using these assumptions.Throw some capital at it, start using the rest of the total of 50,000 slot infrastructure, and who knows where economies of scale will take it.
One thing for sure, they got through demonitisation, RBI directives, Covid with no extra equity raised, were able to raise debt and right the ship. What would they do with a sizeable injection? I think they have proved themselves extremely capable managers.
How the $5.5m valuation has not been effected materially is anyone's guess, but we do not see all the info, but looks weird. What we see looks promising