as I said yesterday, I might nibble some more at 1.40, but perhaps I’ll wait and see where it bottoms over the weeks to come, as I doubt there will be any impetus for a bounce any time soon with no sign of geopolitical easing, inflation easing or a rotation back to fintechs and growth shares any time soon.
maybe best to wait for a double bottom to hold in case it gets quite a bit cheaper still in the context of investor capitulation and maximal pessimism…
don’t see any reason to rush in just yet while the selling is so heavy, despite the attractiveness of a 1.40 as a long term entry.
the space is heating up in terms of competition and I guess the big risk is a price war between tyro, the big 4, stripe and square and a land grab for market share driving down margins for a prolonged period, or even worse a major innovation from the big tech players (akin to Apple Pay but on the vendor side which integrates with accounting etc)… difficult to quantify that risk as a long tail risk but it certainly would affect the long term bull case in terms of market share, margins, future cashflow projections etc.
the market sentiment has clearly flipped and so there is no point fighting against sentiment on the way down, better to wait for the bottom and consolidation then to invest the capital if and when the cashflow trends turn positive and sentiment follows
TYR Price at posting:
$1.45 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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