Haha and there someone is with the inference that I'm downramping to "get in cheap". Nope I've just sold and I inferred that in my post last night that I was disappointed with myself that I didn't sell yesterday at a higher price (I was prepared to due my due diligence over the results).
I'll still answer your questions though
I didn't even address the hedging gains, without them, they would have made a loss, it would appear. As I've mentioned a few times, the gain on acquisition is nonsense. Its entirely created due to an intercompany intangible, so all thats doing is accelerating profit into the current period, to lose to all over the amortisation period. Its complete nonsense, largely because this "gain" is all intercompany related.
Below is a summary of hedging assumptions. The spot price is a worry, as is overall revenue. Both of the 2 hedges, are no longer at those rates any longer. They have 35000 / month (210k for the 6 months) locked in at the $180.66 level, and a further 15k / month locked in at $156 / dmt, so it would appear that even with improved spot pricing, the overall revenue may not result in a sizeable improvement in revenue.
"Firstly, C1 cash costs are NOT an audited number which is quite obvious from a review of the accounts So commentary on C1 cash costs is not included or detailed. We should look to the Quarterly's for that.
Secondly, your analysis of the Fenix-Newhaul P&L savings assumes every other component of C1 costs have stayed the same between periods. Have you considered that there may have been cost escalation in other areas? Inflation over the period is running at 8% and apparently higher in the mining industry. It is entirely possible that FN deal saved more than $10/t but costs escalated by 8% in other areas which would have offset the savings by $6 to $8 per tonne."
Just on these 2 points:
1 - C1 cash cost. Of course its not audited (and it won't be at the FY results either), its a management measure, but its a measure that FEX have calculated themselves and have included within the reports, and use to report on their cost control, so sure I expect some level of analysis on it. Shouldn't that be expected?
2 - On your point on the Newhaul acquisition. If you have poor overall results and can blame it on something outside of your control, as a person that essentially works in business reporting and how to report results,
everytime you can blame poor results on something external, you do it. The fact that they haven't even mentioned the savings generated by Newhaul specifically, just some throw away line, tells me that it hasn't performed at the $10 / tonne C1 cost saving that they have been claiming for the last 6 months. If it had performed, you would clearly state the improvement as a result of what you have done, and then blame the increase on whatever caused it, diesel prices , labour whatever it was. The fact that they didn't do this, tells me that all is not as rosy as you think.
Anyway, I get out with a small capital profit (I bought a 23c a while back) and a few dividends and I move onto something else. I'll keep an eye out on FEX in case another investment opportunity arises but its not for me anymore.
Generally I have a rule now (having been burnt on companies like this in the past), if you lose confidence in management, get the heck out of there. Good management can make a weak company operate well, poor management can take a good company down. I've lost confidence some I'm out.
(20min delay)