The drop in share price is an aberration. The results announced were already known to the market after the Q2 result. The two main factors responsible for the lesser profit than what the market might like were the drop in IO price to around the $90USD/t mark, and the export of only 5 loads in Q2 due in part to the port maintenance work. Two months into this quarter and both these factors are no longer at play. Firstly IO hit $110USD ($155 AUD) in December (remember we receive December payments in January), and for the January to end February period IO has been around $120 USD average, so that's around $175 AUD. We'll get a hedging payment for December, but since then there's not a lot in it. So we'll already have earned this quarter's income and it will be a heck of a lot more than both Q1 and Q2. Secondly, we dovetailed our own maintenance with the port shut down, consequently the company fully expects to be able to deliver 6 shipments this quarter. With the money already earned at the higher IO price, and assuming we do two shipments this month, everything will be on track. At the better prices I expect this quarter will outperform the entire first half. I'm expecting a NPBT of around $20 million and a substantial rise in cash that will underpin a dividend payment in keeping with past years should IO remain at these prices. It's pretty simple maths.
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